Home Buying: The Reason Why Housing Prices are so High

Ever feel like the housing market is a rollercoaster you can't quite get off? Join us as we embark on a journey through the convoluted landscape of real estate economics. Prepare to have your assumptions challenged in our latest episode, where we dissect the multifaceted beast that is soaring housing prices, and spotlight the illusions surrounding lower interest rates as the cure-all for home affordability.  We peel back the layers of market dynamics and psychological factors that are inflating the cost of your dream home.

As we navigate the societal currents shaping our living choices, we don't shy away from the touchy subjects. From the social media pressures that prod us into keeping up with the Joneses to the tug-of-war between rural charm and urban convenience, we expose how these forces influence our decisions about where to settle down. Whether it's the emotional whirlwind of buying a new property or the lure of prestigious addresses, we offer candid conversations about the true cost of the lifestyles we aspire to lead.

Rounding out our exploration, we spotlight the often-overlooked influencers of relocation: taxes. Moving isn't just about space; it's also about what's left in your wallet after the taxman takes his share. Discover how the exodus from high-tax to low-tax states isn't just about the weather but a strategic financial move that could bring unexpected benefits to your bank account. So strap in and tune in; this isn't just another chat about houses—it's an intimate look at the homes we choose and the lives we build within their walls.

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:07

Welcome to Ditch the Suits podcast, where we share insights nobody in the financial services industry wants you to know about. We're here to help you get the most from your money and life, so buckle up and welcome to Ditch the Suits. Well, welcome back to Ditch the Suits. Steve Campbell here with Travis Moss. This is going to be episode number two in our series talking about interest rates, buying a home and home purchase affordability. If you missed the first episode, I think it would be worth going back and listening to as we talked about interest rates. But, like Travis and I, we always like to bring you insights with, backed up with data, cause and effect. So that's what we're going to get into today, as we talk about reasons why prices are so high. So, travis, why don't you really walk us through some of the main components that's driving the prices of value higher and higher?

Speaker 2: 0:50

Yeah, and the solution or I guess we're left off as interest rates coming down is not going to fix anything for people. That's not the way out of this situation with that high housing prices. For people who have bought one at a high price and paid a high interest rate, they'll get to refinance, so it'll definitely help them, but they've already got the house, so it's a little bit of a different animal. Or they may be able to flip their house. They could sell their house and then go buy something else with a lower interest rate or something like that. But that's not going to get us through this issue of why housing prices are so high. In fact, it's because interest rates were so low for so long that we had this problem. Easy money is going to lead to unintended consequences, and that's exactly what we're seeing here. It's like if I make it too easy to give money, if I put too much money out there, then there's going to be more money chasing the same thing and it's going to have some side effects that we're not necessarily aware of or prepared for. And now, a lot of times, we don't really like. We don't like the outcome of things being more expensive. What we really want is I want to have more money, steve, but I don't want anything that costs any more than it already does, it's true. And you have record low interest rates. So people say, hey, I can afford more principal. So what do they do? They bid houses up and they're like because I can afford more principal, I want a nicer house, a bigger house, I want to be the community I want to be in. I'm okay overpaying for the house a little bit extra, because you know the interest is really low, I can afford it. So you end up with these bidding wars, starting somewhere around COVID, when the rates really hit the floor, you have these bidding wars where the prices are getting bid up and people think that that's great. And then the people selling their houses. You know they're basically going for the largest windfalls of their life. These people selling the houses are saying you know, look, I can't believe somebody will pay me to plus two, three times what I paid for my house 20 years ago. So you know, I'm gladly going to sell my house and go figure out what to do. Well, think about what that does too. That puts them back into the housing market and now they have more money to spend on houses, right, or they have more money to put in the investments and then they're going to go rent and they're going to force up rent prices right, it's a dislocation.

Speaker 2: 3:23

People are moving around a ton and it's changing everything that we would essentially take for granted. But it starts with the fact that more people can can afford to borrow more money to put towards houses, and every time we buy a house for more money, it means all the other houses around are more valuable, which is the new starting price for everybody else going forward. And what we think used to be expensive now we call value. You know the same house that we used to say that I would never pay that much for a house. Now we say, hey, that's a good value to pay for the house.

Speaker 2: 4:01

And it's a confusing thing because you know people who have owned houses before. It's kind of like if you've ever talked to somebody who's 80, ask them what the cost of bread was when they were a kid, ask them how much money they needed for grocery shopping, ask them what you know a good allowance was, you'll be shocked at what they could have bought back then, and a lot of times they're still anchored and I have people was like I won't buy stuff. I'm like why? Because it used to be cheaper and it's like that's not a good reason not to have air conditioning or not to buy groceries, but that's. You know, you get anchored in what the prices used to be. The only thing that's going to drive the housing prices back down is if people start selling their houses for less than they appraise now. So people literally have to consciously say, hey, you know what, steve, I'm comfortable taking a haircut at my house. It's okay, man, I like you. So you know, I wanted my house appraised at 700. I'll do 650 for you because I like you.

Speaker 1: 5:01

I was thinking about that too, because I think it's really hard. So, if you have a desire, maybe you missed that first window during COVID of buying a home because you were convinced that prices were going to come back down, and they just haven't. So now you're in a place where maybe you went from opportunity a few years ago to desperation whether your family grew. Maybe you do have to relocate because, spouse, you took a job, whatever it may be, the rules have also changed, and I think what happens is that, if you are trying to buy a home, you get frustrated that the seller isn't having an emotional connection to you as the buyer in meeting you where you want to be met, and you have to go back to what you just said. You had people that, coming out of 2020, put their house on the market for half a million dollars, hoping to get 450, right, thinking it was probably priced high, and then you had a line full of people outside offered them 550, 600. You can write all the letters that you want to the seller about why you deserve this house. At the end of the day, though, it is a transaction, and so I wonder if there's a culmination of people being frustrated, people being emotional, people wanting things to be better and it's just not happening. And so maybe you're like we talked about this teeter-totter in the first episode, talking about interest rates and kind of price, and now it's like, okay, you may need to do something, but how do you avoid from doing something to being completely desperate, that you put yourself in a catastrophic position? Let's pause and hear a word from our sponsor.

Speaker 1: 6:32

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Speaker 2: 7:09

We need to think about this a little bit more. Like the price of college, and a lot of people say, well, that's unfair too. But is it really unfair? You have a lot of choices. You have a lot of different places you go to college. There's a lot of different types of college. There's a lot of different degrees that you can study. There's a lot of things you could do to get scholarships and stuff like that. There's a lot of different ways to go about it and go to do it.

Speaker 2: 7:33

But ultimately, if college is too expensive, you know when the price of college will go down, when people stop paying for it. That's when it'll go down, when the demand slows down. So we have this thing where there's like oh, look at record, look at all these people applying for these schools, for the prestigious schools, and they keep. You know, look at the college. The cost of college keeps going up and up and up. What do you think's happening with housing? More and more people want the quality housing, so the price keeps getting pushed up and up and up, and so we kind of like become like these little brats where we're running around. We're just mad because things cost. The nice stuff costs more. Okay, well, you have two choices. You know get something else, or you know refuse it. Basically, and if enough people refused it, it would come down when interest rates go from low to high.

Speaker 2: 8:28

And this is what one of the things that's happened, because I've seen headlines where people are like, oh, it's because of the baby boomers, they won't move out. They won't for some reason. We're mad now at baby boomers for not giving up their homes. They're supposed to give up their homes. They need to move, they need to downsize, they need to, you know, move over to a trailer or something. They need to get out of their houses so that young people can have their houses. Okay, seems a little bit self-centered, first of all, but also, people won't be able to sell for as much and they won't be able to improve the situation because it's more expensive to borrow the same amount of money. So this they put. So.

Speaker 2: 9:03

So by that I mean if I can borrow 600, if I can, if you'll pay me $600,000 for my house and I could go out and buy another property, right? Because a lot of people, when they sell their house, they actually upgrade. Yep, right, they either upgrade or they relocate, and in relocating, a lot of times they relocate to a more expensive place, so that implies that there's still going to be a component of that involved. So if I've been paying 3% because I refinanced my mortgage in 2020, and you come along and you pay me my 600 for the house and I pay off my mortgage and I have a little bit left over, so I'm going to go and I'm going to buy a new house, but now rates are 8%. I can't buy the same house that I have, so it does force I get stuck.

Speaker 2: 9:51

My incentive to sell is down, so that actually puts upward pressure too, because I need to get more, because I can't borrow as much because of the way the payment works. So there's a dynamic here that can stall people who otherwise would be moving because they can't make a horizontal move. For some people it would be a negative move and so therefore they're saying look, I don't need the move, I'm happy where I'm at. Yeah, maybe the house is bigger than I need because the kids are all moved out and everything, but it's already paid for or I have a good mortgage on it, I'm not in a hurry to go, and so they stay put.

Speaker 1: 10:44

Yep, well, and you got today too, depending on your age, you got a lot of societal and social media pressure. We had talked about in that first episode, 70s and 80s, where interest rates were. When you're in the 70s and 80s you didn't have the internet, you didn't have a computer in your pocket that every time you opened it, show you the new house that your best friends bought, friends from high school, and everything is HGTV level homes and it's all open concept when you don't realize the detrimental effect that that's having on you. That's causing you to want to get out of the place that you're in. That 30 years ago, if most people had what I think people in the 30s and 40s had today, their statement would be you should be grateful. You should be thankful because you don't understand. Their context was World War II, it was the Great Depression. So in the 70s and 80s they had more than generations before. We now have more than generations before us and our parents. But we also have this constant reminder, this barometer of people our age people, older. You can go on your phone today, open it and it's baby pictures, it's brand new homes, it's relocations and all of a sudden it creates this FOMO of we have to do something and I know that we were just talking about our experience when we moved down here to East Tennessee. I remember this area is really big on housing developments, which in New York State we didn't really have too much of because no one wants to really build new homes because you could tax out the Wazoo. So there's just not as much incentive to build entire developments for people. There's a lot of apartment buildings but when you come down here and everywhere you drive on the highways, development after development.

Speaker 1: 12:17

I remember going around with our realtor and looking at brand new homes and there's kind of this like feeling of like we've kind of arrived in a way where you're being shown a brand new home and all of a sudden your emotions kick in and it's like we need to get this.

Speaker 1: 12:30

You add the pressure of 30 other buyers trying to get that same home and you can begin to really compromise what's important to you. And, for example, my wife and I you know we have four kids I remember a realtor walking us out to the back of the home and there was a deck and on the other side of that deck was a cliff and I remember her looking at me and saying, like the realtor, I don't think your kids would jump, you know, because she wanted to sell a home. So you got that part right. She wants to sell a home in a hot market.

Speaker 1: 13:01

You have other buyers and it's crazy what you'll begin to compromise or convince yourself of, like we don't need a backyard, we don't need all these things. So you got this culmination and why I'm saying all that is you got people that are frustrated with settled individuals that don't want to move out of their homes because, again, they're in this place of desperation, and I think this kind of maybe segues into cause and effect number two as to maybe why this is happening this unique time in history.

Speaker 2: 13:49

We have mobility and this is probably, at least for America, when the first times in modern time that you have families that are spreading all over the country. Because of technology, people can live just about anywhere and they can communicate much better, they can face time, they can see the grandkids, that kind of stuff, and travel is easier, travel is more abundant than ever before. So that alone is a certain dynamic. And then you add in the you know, really COVID triggered mass migrations and their self fueling. So, regardless of somebody's feelings about COVID, covid took 10 or 15 years of pent up, slow moving change and shoved it into a six month time slot and it just came out with an explosion out the other end.

Speaker 2: 14:46

People left the cities because of the effect of the lockdowns and because now they can work from home. I mean, I know people live in the cities. It's like I moved from the city because I started looking at what I was paying and what I was paying was for access and they took the access away. I couldn't do everything I wanted to do anymore. They took it away and now I'm like hold up in a tiny little apartment, you know, and I can't do anything, I can't go anywhere, and it was like being in prison and it's like I'm not paying that for this anymore. And then you find out too, for the amount that you're paying. You pay that so that you have access to some of these jobs and some of these better, high paying jobs and more prestigious jobs or whatever. And they say, well, you don't have to come into the office anymore. So now you figure out why I'm gonna pay the higher rent to get the higher paying anymore. So you had massive amounts of people exit as the city and move back to where they came from or other types of communities that would not be considered major metropolitan areas.

Speaker 2: 15:49

Well, think about it. If you normally have, at a given time, like where we're from, 500 houses on the market and a thousand people move into the community, what's it gonna do to the housing market? And a thousand people with money? So they don't want the 500 houses, they want the top 200 houses. What's that do to the supply and demand of housing in that community? Because then everybody's gonna be fighting over everything, right, because the people who were trying to get those top 200 houses they're getting outbid from the people coming in from the outside community. So now they're bidding more for the smaller house, for the lower, the other 300 houses. It completely rips through that it doesn't take a lot of money to disrupt an entire market. So you get people moving from the city and who are used to paying $3,500 to $7,500 in rent. I mean, I just Googled average rent in New York City $3,500 to $7,500, depending on where you live.

Speaker 2: 16:48

And in our previous episode we talked about mortgage payments. Well, a $1 million 30 year mortgage at 5.625% is $5,737 a month Rate. Smack in the middle of that rent that you were paying anyway. Now if you were to go in upstate New York and the big and thin area we're from, I don't think there's a house that costs a million dollars that you could buy if you wanted to. You can get 8,000 square feet, probably with 30 acres, for a million dollars, compared to somebody's $1,200 in New York City they just left. Or 1,200 square feet in New York City they just left. So you go three hours outside of the city and you got a. There's a lot available to you all of a sudden, right? I don't know if I mentioned that, but that $5,757 payment that was on 5.625% interest. So that would be pretending the interest rates went down 2% from where they are today. But remember, during COVID you could go out there and you could get like a 2.6% mortgage. So imagine how much you could actually, how cheap that was.

Speaker 2: 17:57

So when the person moves out of the city and they're going to work remote, though, guess what didn't change their income. So guess what didn't change their budget. They can still afford $3,570 a month and they get a payment for $5,757. It goes oh, that's a deal. Look at everything that I get for this. I got no problem bidding up a property. You know what? I can afford a million dollar property easily. You want 400 for that. I'll give you 500. It was called a day. Don't let anybody else bid on it. And guess what? They're coming from the city.

Speaker 2: 18:32

When you come from the city, you get a little bit of a shark attitude. You have to. You're competing with. You're doing the things that happens in the city. You're always competing right, it's always competition. You got to be more of a shark. So you come out to the country and you're like you know they're 400. I'm not gonna even mess with you. I'm not giving you a 420. I'm not giving you a 430. I'll give you a 480 cash deal. We close in 30 days.

Speaker 2: 18:51

Why Did you wake yourself up? Guess what you know I mean. Or why? Because it's it's that's cheap to me. I'm like you know I've got this great income and they see the value because it's way more than what they could have had in the city. Well, you know, I could have had a. It could spend a half million dollars. You got 1200 square foot condo. Go to upstate New York, even though where we are in Tennessee, half million dollars gonna buy you a couple thousand square feet of a really nice property and possibly a bunch of land to go with it. One thing you don't get with a condo in a co-op in New York City as much grass. You know a place for your dog to go to the bathroom or run in the yard. You know you can get have that with with those places when you leave the city.

Speaker 2: 19:35

Local people don't understand that. So local people are just saying I don't understand what's wrong with these people. Why are they coming in and bidding up these houses? That 400,000 other house in the corner has been 400,000 for the last decade and now this person from the city comes in, they start throwing money around. Now it's selling for 550 or 600. What the hell's wrong with that are all these people? It's because they don't understand the value of actually what's in their hand versus somebody who's coming, who has never had that value before but has the means. They're coming in saying that's what that's worth to me. Get out of the way.

Speaker 1: 20:06

When I think to you had a shift with the co-vid of maybe what is like societally appropriate. You know co-vid was a great equalizer for many of us because we all experienced it together in the 70s and 80s. If you had told your parents, hey, I'm gonna relocate they, they would probably talk to you about family and in leaving us and you know people don't leave where they're from now, I mean where we live in East Tennessee. I go to a ball field and you know seven out of ten people I talk to it's like Are you from here? And they're like, no, I'm from San Diego. It's like all right, and it's like where are you from? It's like I'm from Michigan. It's like, did you know anybody? And it's like, no, I didn't know anybody.

Speaker 1: 20:40

So there's almost just this wide acceptance to a family, still important, but because of the advent of technology and the advancements, I can FaceTime my parents from a place I want to live and just you know talking about. You know the restrictions that many people went through in certain states in quarantine. When you have five, ten, eighteen months of restrictions and freedoms, it resets what is important to you to the point that you won't allow Somebody to kind of, you know, take that from you, and you'll take chances that maybe 30, 40 years ago you didn't have as many people collectively with the same thoughts. And, as we just talked about social media being a curse, social media, though, also can open your eyes to what other people are doing. So if you all of a sudden are like man, should we move? Or other people doing this, and you go on YouTube, you can watch all these videos of people that made moves and tell you about where they lived.

Speaker 1: 21:28

I think there's a generation that we're in that's more willing to take a chance, even though they not know people in that hometown. Because of what, the opportunity exists. That maybe 30, 40 years ago would have been a much. You might know one in ten people that did that. Now there's a huge group of people doing it.

Speaker 2: 21:45

Well, there's also the experience of it, like I've talked to people who said I wouldn't even know what to do. And so you know, when you, when you live in more of a rural area where, like we're from, you don't meet a lot of people, have ever moved anywhere Other than, like the next town over right, and you don't Moving from a not only from one state to another, but across, you know, have way across the country. Normally what gives you confidence is that you know if somebody else who did it and they did it successfully they didn't fall off the end of the earth. Basically, you know like, oh okay, you know you can survive doing this and you can turn out pretty well, because you don't actually. I mean, how many people in our country actually know much about other states or other communities? They don't. You know we end up, you know we have a whole Causing effect on this but we end up in like a community and we over focus on a community, but as if it's the only community in the country. Yeah, you know, I mean I have to be in this one because it's the best community ever. It's like how many communities have you actually ever gone and visited for any length of time.

Speaker 2: 22:46

But you know, the other thing that's made it easier is more people are retiring younger, with more means, which means that they it's easier to travel. They've got more years before maybe their health starts to slow down. And when they go visit their kids the kids at bigger houses, so it's easier to go stay with the kids. So it's also an awful lot easier for people to go visit the kids now In another state. And it would be, you know, 50 years ago, when the, the average house didn't have a guest room. Yeah, you know, there's no place to put mom and dad when they came into town. And this is, you know, to amplify this even more, this whole conundrum with people moving from the city. And it's not just people move the city we move from from rural upstate New York to Tennessee. So we actually, I would say, moved to a city from the country.

Speaker 2: 23:40

But this is what kind of? This is another Dynamic that is very fascinating to me when you go from a high-income tax state to a low-income tax day. But so not only do you have the same perspective as we outlined before, right, I'm, if I'm going from a high-income stat state to a low-income tax state, one of the things that I'm also going to be used to is making a higher wages I'm, and if I'm gonna be working remotely or or or keeping the same kind of Compensation, kind of normally if people move jobs, it's built off their last compensation or whatever, right? So if I'm kind of keeping that same trend. Higher tax states have to pay their employees more Because the employees need more money to pay the taxes, right? So when you move from from a Higher tax, that you tend to bring your income with you or the assets with you as well that are Like pro rata compared to the tax burden, I guess is what I would say.

Speaker 2: 24:40

As far as you know, income goes. But let's say that you see, you not only have the perspective of wow, I can't believe what I can afford in this, this community, because of property taxes. Right, and I've got these financial means in my income, so that looks like a great deal for me. But then and we talked about this property taxes it we're from in New York. At half million dollar house in good condition, there's like $24,000 a year in property taxes. It would take. That's 24 24,000 folks.

Speaker 2: 25:13

Yes 2000 a month. I know farmers that used to have to log their land to pay their property taxes. Down here there's a farm that right next to me. It's 130 acres. Or property taxes, or $1,800 a year. You know what I mean. It's completely different dynamic. But let's say that you're paying $24,000 a year for that same property and the equivalence of that property whether it's $500,000 or $800,000 in price. When you get to your lower tax state, the property tax is $5,000. Guess what you have? You have $19,000 to spend on a difference to spend towards your mortgage. It's over $1,500 more a month. So if you could have afforded a $3,000 mortgage back in the state that you came from, the shift in property tax remember our teeter-totter and how we left out the property taxes the decline in property taxes added $1,500 to the amount of you know into that equation. So you can afford $1,500 more a principle and interest every month. So your payment you can go from a $3,000 payment to a $4,500 payment because before you had that same payment it was just the state was taking a bunch of it. Okay, well, now that's just property taxes.

Speaker 2: 26:36

We haven't talked about it all as income taxes. So New York state has an income tax rate and for somebody making $300,000, probably paying on average about 6%, and if they're in the city there's an extra tax for being in the city and all that kind of stuff they're only paying 6% state income taxes. So 300,000 income. They know that there's deductions and stuff. That's just for easy. Math is to say it's $18,000 a year. If you move to Tennessee and they don't charge you state income tax, guess what? You saved $18,000 a year. If you're making the same amount of money, even if you're making less money, you're probably still going to save money, right? You can make 10 grand less and still be $8,000 ahead because you don't have to pay the state income taxes. But that's $18,000 difference. So that's another $1500 for your mortgage Just between your property taxes and your income taxes.

Speaker 2: 27:25

If you're a successful couple, two professionals in the house between the two of you, you could afford $3,000 more in payments on your mortgage just by leaving the state and the difference with paying 3,000,. So somebody would say but why would I want to put that towards my mortgage? I would just buy a lesser house and you pay. Let's say you pay $4,500 for housing, principal interest and mortgage payment in New York or and property taxes in New York right. 1,500 in that example goes to the state. The other 3,000 split between principal and interest.

Speaker 2: 28:02

You go to a low tax date. 500 goes to the state, the other 4,000 goes to principal and interest. So you're getting more equity faster in your house because you're essentially paying yourself back in that regard. Yes, you're paying interest, but a big chunk of that payment goes towards your principal and it's freeing up equity in your house every month. So imagine that, wherever you are, if you could give $1,000 less in taxes a month and that would come off, go into equity in your house, you'd think that that was pretty cool. Well, that's exactly the phenomenon that's happening when I go from a high tax date so high property tax, high income tax and if it's high property and high income, I move into a low tax date and I feel like I'm rich.

Speaker 1: 28:53

Yep, and what changed and I think that's really the big conversation is there's an assumption that everybody is overreaching, where it's really probably just a shift in how we're spending money, in the allocation of it. So I think yeah, it's.

Speaker 2: 29:05

Who's getting it, Steve? Because at the end of the day, I can bid up a house by $3,000 a month in mortgage payments more because I never had that money in the first place coming from where I came from, and at least if I'm going to spend it, it's going to go towards a lot more equity in the house. So the psychology of it is this is amazing I can buy something that I could have never afforded in another community because I'm dislocating the tax bills.

Speaker 1: 29:40

And I think that's a huge opportunity for individuals that are thinking about man. What are interest rates going to come down so we can do more? What if you could be doing more now? But it's just a matter of proximity where you live versus relocation. So we have a series of cause and effects. We'll pause here to give you a little bit of a cliffhanger that we got Three more we want to go with through you, but I think that this was a really powerful and insightful conversation that hopefully opened your eyes up to the fact of, again, in episode number one, the three components that make up that mortgage payment, but then, in this cause and effect, what COVID has allowed people to do with virtual working, with the ability of state income tax, how that plays in property taxes. So stay tuned. I think these next three, though, are really going to open your eyes on to why a lot of this is being accelerated. So, again, thanks for stopping by. I'll catch you soon. Thanks for watching.